The Effects of China–U.S. Competition in the Persian Gulf on the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract

The rise of China and the gradual decline of American hegemony are poised to significantly challenge the existing political, economic, and security alignments of the Persian Gulf in the near future. Beijing's strategic and instrumental focus on the Persian Gulf region, coupled with the necessity of maintaining a stable energy supply, has led to the emergence of an extensive network of economic and trade connections between China and key actors in the region. Accordingly, the present article seeks to answer the following question: What impact does the foreign policy of China and the United States in the Persian Gulf have on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? This question is addressed through the hypothesis that the declining presence of the United States in the Persian Gulf and the expansion of China's influence—as a fundamental ally of Tehran—could, by shifting the regional balance of power in Iran's favor, contribute to the enhancement of Tehran’s national security. However, the analysis of indicators related to Iran–China relations leads to a rejection of this hypothesis. This is because, rather than challenging the existing order, China has acted to preserve the status quo. Beijing’s deep commercial and military ties with the traditional allies of the United States in the Persian Gulf are among the most controversial and divergent factors in its relationship with Tehran. While there may be notable differences between the approaches of China and the United States in the Persian Gulf, their interests have so far largely aligned, with both seeking a stable and tension-free region.